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PARALLEL TEXTS
Previsioni economiche dell'autunno 2013: ripresa graduale, rischi esterni
Inglese tratto da:
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-13-1025_en.htm
Italiano tratto da:
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-13-1025_it.htm
Data documento: 05-11-2013
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Autumn 2013 economic forecast: Gradual recovery, external risks
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Previsioni economiche dell'autunno 2013: ripresa graduale, rischi esterni
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In recent months, there have been encouraging signs that an economic recovery is underway in Europe.
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I segnali incoraggianti degli ultimi mesi indicano che in Europa è in atto una ripresa economica.
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After contracting up to the first quarter of 2013, the European economy started to grow again in the second quarter and real GDP is set to continue growing in the remainder of this year.
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Dopo una contrazione durata fino al primo trimestre del 2013, la crescita dell'economia europea è ripartita nel secondo trimestre e il PIL reale dovrebbe continuare ad aumentare nell'ultima parte dell'anno.
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Growth in the second half of 2013 is expected at 0.5 % compared to the same period in 2012 in the EU.
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Nel secondo semestre del 2013 la crescita nell'UE dovrebbe essere dello 0,5% rispetto allo stesso periodo del 2012.
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On an annual basis, real GDP growth this year is estimated at 0.0 % in the EU and -0.4 % in the euro area.
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La crescita del PIL reale nel 2013, calcolata su base annuale, è stimata allo 0,0% nell'UE e a -0,4% nella zona euro.
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Looking ahead, economic growth is forecast to gradually gather pace over the forecast horizon, to 1.4 % in the EU and 1.1 % the euro area in 2014, reaching 1.9 % and 1.7 % in 2015, respectively.
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Per il resto del periodo di riferimento si prevede una progressiva accelerazione della crescita economica, che nel 2014 dovrebbe essere pari all'1,4% nell'UE e all'1,1% nella zona euro per poi arrivare rispettivamente all'1,9% e all'1,7% nel 2015.
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Internal and external adjustment in Europe is continuing, underpinned in many cases by the significant structural reforms and fiscal consolidation implemented in recent years.
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Prosegue il processo di aggiustamento interno ed esterno in Europa, in molti casi con il sostegno delle importanti riforme strutturali e del risanamento di bilancio attuati negli ultimi anni.
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This has improved the conditions for domestic demand to gradually become the main engine of growth in Europe.
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Questo ha creato condizioni migliori perché la domanda interna diventi progressivamente il principale motore di crescita in Europa.
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However, against the background of a weakened outlook for emerging market economies, the return to solid growth will be a gradual process.
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Visto però l'indebolimento delle prospettive per le economie di mercato emergenti, il ritorno a una crescita solida sarà un processo graduale.
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Olli Rehn, Commission Vice-President for Economic and Monetary Affairs and the Euro said:
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Olli Rehn, Vicepresidente e Commissario per gli Affari economici e monetari e l'euro, ha dichiarato:
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"There are increasing signs that the European economy has reached a turning point.
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"Segnali sempre più numerosi indicano che l'economia europea è giunta a una svolta.
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The fiscal consolidation and structural reforms undertaken in Europe have created the basis for recovery. But it is too early to declare victory: unemployment remains at unacceptably high levels.
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Il risanamento di bilancio e le riforme strutturali attuati in Europa hanno creato i presupposti per la ripresa ma è troppo presto per cantare vittoria, perché la disoccupazione rimane a livelli inaccettabilmente elevati.
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That’s why we must continue working to modernise the European economy, for sustainable growth and job creation."
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Dobbiamo quindi impegnarci ulteriormente per modernizzare l'economia europea in modo da garantire una crescita e un'occupazione sostenibili".
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A gradual recovery gains traction
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Una ripresa graduale acquista velocità
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The accumulated macroeconomic imbalances are diminishing, and growth is expected to moderately gain pace. However, the on-going balance-sheet adjustment in some countries continues to weigh on investment and consumption.
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Gli squilibri macroeconomici accumulati si stanno riducendo e la crescita dovrebbe acquistare progressivamente velocità, ma l'aggiustamento di bilancio in corso in alcuni paesi incide tuttora sugli investimenti e sul consumo.
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While the financial market situation has improved significantly and interest rates have declined for vulnerable countries, this has not yet fed through to the real economy as fragmentation in financial markets persists, with substantial differences across Member States and across firms of different sizes.
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Il notevole miglioramento della situazione dei mercati finanziari e il calo globale dei tassi d'interesse per i paesi vulnerabili non hanno ancora avuto effetti sull'economia reale, perché i mercati finanziari rimangono frammentati con forti disparità tra Stati membri e tra imprese di diverse dimensioni.
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The current outlook is in line with characteristics of previous recoveries following severe financial crises.
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Le prospettive attuali sono in linea con le caratteristiche delle precedenti riprese successive a gravi crisi finanziarie.
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As deleveraging needs subside, domestic demand is expected to strengthen slowly, thanks to resuming private consumption growth and the rebound in gross fixed capital formation due to improving overall financing conditions and economic sentiment.
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A mano a mano che diminuirà il fabbisogno di deleveraging, la domanda interna dovrebbe rafforzarsi lentamente grazie alla ripresa del consumo privato e degli investimenti fissi lordi, conseguenza del miglioramento delle condizioni di finanziamento generali e del clima economico.
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Given the progress made in recent years, the pace of fiscal consolidation is set to slow down over the forecast period.
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Visti i progressi degli ultimi anni, il ritmo del risanamento di bilancio dovrebbe rallentare nel periodo a cui si riferiscono le previsioni.
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In 2014 and 2015, domestic demand is expected to be the main driver of growth, against the background of a weakened outlook for EU exports to the rest of the world.
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Nel 2014 e nel 2015 la domanda interna dovrebbe essere il principale motore di crescita, a fronte di un peggioramento delle prospettive per le esportazioni dell'UE nel resto del mondo.
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Since labour market developments typically lag those in GDP by half a year or more, the recovery of economic activity is expected to translate only gradually into job creation.
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Visto che di norma gli sviluppi del mercato del lavoro si manifestano con almeno sei mesi di ritardo rispetto all'evoluzione del PIL, la ripresa dell'attività economica dovrebbe tradursi solo gradualmente nella creazione di posti di lavoro.
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This year, unemployment has remained very high in some countries and employment has continued to decline.
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Quest'anno i tassi di disoccupazione sono rimasti molto elevati in alcuni paesi e l'occupazione ha registrato un ulteriore calo.
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However, recent months have seen labour-market conditions start to stabilise and the outlook is for a modest decline in unemployment towards 10.7 % in the EU and 11.8 % in the euro area by 2015, though cross-country differences will remain very large.
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Negli ultimi mesi, tuttavia, le condizioni del mercato del lavoro hanno iniziato a stabilizzarsi e si prevede un lieve calo della disoccupazione, che dovrebbe arrivare al 10,7% nell'UE e all'11,8% nella zona euro entro il 2015 anche se le disparità tra i vari paesi rimarranno molto accentuate.
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Consumer-price inflation is expected to remain subdued in both the EU and euro area over the forecast period, with rates close to 1½%.
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Nel periodo di riferimento l'inflazione dei prezzi al consumo dovrebbe rimanere contenuta sia nell'UE che nella zona euro, con tassi vicini all'1½%.
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Current-account balances in vulnerable Member States have strongly and consistently improved in recent years.
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Negli ultimi anni i saldi delle partite correnti degli Stati membri vulnerabili sono migliorati in modo deciso e costante.
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Following continued price competitiveness gains and a strengthening of their export sectors, a number of vulnerable Member States are expected to register current-account surpluses this year.
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Quest'anno diversi Stati membri vulnerabili dovrebbero registrare un avanzo delle partite correnti grazie al costante aumento della competitività dei prezzi e al rafforzamento dei loro settori di esportazione.
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Early decisive effort gives way to slower speed of consolidation
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Un'azione risoluta e tempestiva concede più tempo per attuare il risanamento di bilancio
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The reduction in general government deficits is set to continue.
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La riduzione dei disavanzi pubblici è destinata a proseguire.
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In 2013, headline fiscal deficits are projected to fall to 3½% of GDP in the EU and 3% in the euro area, while debt-to-GDP ratios will reach almost 90% in the EU and 96% in the euro area.
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Nel 2013 i disavanzi nominali dovrebbero scendere al 3½% del PIL nell'UE e al 3% nella zona euro, mentre il rapporto debito/PIL sarà di poco inferiore al 90% nell'UE e pari al 96% nella zona euro.
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The structural budget deficit, i.e.the general government deficit corrected for cyclical factors, one-offs and other temporary measures, is forecast to decline significantly in 2013 by more than ½% of GDP in both areas, on the back of consolidation measures implemented in several Member States.
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Nel 2013 il disavanzo di bilancio strutturale, cioè il disavanzo pubblico corretto per il ciclo e al netto di misure una tantum e di altre misure temporanee, dovrebbe registrare una netta diminuzione (più di ½% del PIL) in entrambe le zone grazie alle misure di risanamento attuate in diversi Stati membri.
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According to the 2014 draft budgets that were available before the forecast cut-off date, this improvement is set to continue in 2014, but at a slower pace.
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Stando ai progetti di bilancio 2014 ricevuti prima della data di redazione definitiva delle previsioni, questo miglioramento dovrebbe continuare nel 2014, anche se a ritmo meno sostenuto.
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This is partially explained by the fact that some Member States have already achieved their respective Medium Term Objectives for their structural budgetary balances, which should contribute to bringing the public debt onto a declining path.
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Ciò è dovuto in parte al fatto che alcuni Stati membri hanno già raggiunto gli obiettivi a medio termine relativi al saldo di bilancio strutturale, il che contribuirà a riportare il debito pubblico su un percorso discendente.
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Risks more balanced
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Rischi più equilibrati
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This forecast is based on the assumption of rigorous implementation of agreed policy measures at EU and Member State level that will support the on-going necessary adjustment process and sustain improvements in confidence as well as financial conditions.
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Le previsioni partono dal presupposto che un'attuazione rigorosa delle misure politiche concordate a livello dell'UE e degli Stati membri sosterrà il necessario processo di aggiustamento in corso contribuendo al tempo stesso a migliorare la fiducia e le condizioni finanziarie.
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Due to decisive policy implementation, perceived risks to the integrity of the euro related to the sovereign debt crisis have disappeared.
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Grazie all'attuazione risoluta delle politiche, i rischi per l'integrità dell'euro percepiti in relazione alla crisi del debito sovrano sono scomparsi.
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More upside risks have emerged, linked to the possibility that the reforms implemented in recent years could deliver further positive effects more quickly than expected.
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Si sono invece materializzati rischi di correzione al rialzo legati alla possibilità che le riforme attuate negli ultimi anni producano altri effetti positivi più rapidamente del previsto.
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However, while uncertainty has receded, it remains elevated and threatens to remain a drag on growth.
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Pur essendo diminuita, tuttavia, l'incertezza rimane notevole e potrebbe ancora ostacolare la crescita.
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The risk remains that policy slippage could raise uncertainty and re-ignite financial stress, while downside risks in the external environment have increased. |
Rimane il rischio che la deviazione rispetto alle politiche stabilite accentui l'incertezza e riacutizzi le tensioni finanziarie, a fronte di maggiori rischi di correzione al ribasso nel contesto esterno. |
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LISTEN WITH READSPEAKER
Autumn 2013 economic forecast:Gradual recovery, external risks
In recent months, there have been encouraging signs that an economic recovery
is underway in Europe.
After contracting up to the first quarter of 2013, the European economy
started to grow again in the second quarter and real GDP is set to continue
growing in the remainder of this year.
Growth in the second half of 2013 is expected at 0.5 % compared to the same
period in 2012 in the EU.
On an annual basis, real GDP growth this year is estimated at 0.0 % in the EU
and -0.4 % in the euro area.
Looking ahead, economic growth is forecast to gradually gather pace over the
forecast horizon, to 1.4 % in the EU and 1.1 % the euro area in 2014, reaching
1.9 % and 1.7 % in 2015, respectively.
Internal and external adjustment in Europe is continuing, underpinned in many
cases by the significant structural reforms and fiscal consolidation implemented
in recent years.
This has improved the conditions for domestic demand to gradually become the
main engine of growth in Europe.
However, against the background of a weakened outlook for emerging market
economies, the return to solid growth will be a gradual process.
Olli Rehn, Commission Vice-President for Economic and Monetary Affairs and
the Euro said:
"There are increasing signs that the European economy has reached a turning
point.
The fiscal consolidation and structural reforms undertaken in Europe have
created the basis for recovery. But it is too early to declare victory:
unemployment remains at unacceptably high levels.
That’s why we must continue working to modernise the European economy, for
sustainable growth and job creation."
A gradual recovery gains traction
The accumulated macroeconomic imbalances are diminishing, and growth is
expected to moderately gain pace. However, the on-going balance-sheet adjustment
in some countries continues to weigh on investment and consumption.
While the financial market situation has improved significantly and interest
rates have declined for vulnerable countries, this has not yet fed through to
the real economy as fragmentation in financial markets persists, with
substantial differences across Member States and across firms of different
sizes.
The current outlook is in line with characteristics of previous recoveries
following severe financial crises.
As deleveraging needs subside, domestic demand is expected to strengthen
slowly, thanks to resuming private consumption growth and the rebound in gross
fixed capital formation due to improving overall financing conditions and
economic sentiment.
Given the progress made in recent years, the pace of fiscal consolidation is
set to slow down over the forecast period.
In 2014 and 2015, domestic demand is expected to be the main driver of
growth, against the background of a weakened outlook for EU exports to the rest
of the world.
Since labour market developments typically lag those in GDP by half a year or
more, the recovery of economic activity is expected to translate only gradually
into job creation.
This year, unemployment has remained very high in some countries and
employment has continued to decline.
However, recent months have seen labour-market conditions start to stabilise
and the outlook is for a modest decline in unemployment towards 10.7 % in the EU
and 11.8 % in the euro area by 2015, though cross-country differences will
remain very large.
Consumer-price inflation is expected to remain subdued in both the EU and
euro area over the forecast period, with rates close to 1½%.
Current-account balances in vulnerable Member States have strongly and
consistently improved in recent years.
Following continued price competitiveness gains and a strengthening of their
export sectors, a number of vulnerable Member States are expected to register
current-account surpluses this year.
Early decisive effort gives way to slower speed of consolidation
The reduction in general government deficits is set to continue.
In 2013, headline fiscal deficits are projected to fall to 3½% of GDP in the
EU and 3% in the euro area, while debt-to-GDP ratios will reach almost 90% in
the EU and 96% in the euro area.
The structural budget deficit, i.e.the general government deficit corrected
for cyclical factors, one-offs and other temporary measures, is forecast to
decline significantly in 2013 by more than ½% of GDP in both areas, on the back
of consolidation measures implemented in several Member States.
According to the 2014 draft budgets that were available before the forecast
cut-off date, this improvement is set to continue in 2014, but at a slower pace.
This is partially explained by the fact that some Member States have already
achieved their respective Medium Term Objectives for their structural budgetary
balances, which should contribute to bringing the public debt onto a declining
path.
Risks more balanced
This forecast is based on the assumption of rigorous implementation of agreed
policy measures at EU and Member State level that will support the on-going
necessary adjustment process and sustain improvements in confidence as well as
financial conditions.
Due to decisive policy implementation, perceived risks to the integrity of
the euro related to the sovereign debt crisis have disappeared.
More upside risks have emerged, linked to the possibility that the reforms
implemented in recent years could deliver further positive effects more quickly
than expected.
However, while uncertainty has receded, it remains elevated and threatens to
remain a drag on growth.
The risk remains that policy slippage could raise uncertainty and re-ignite
financial stress, while downside risks in the external environment have
increased.
|